2015 Predictions and Outlook

          The 2015 KPAFFL Draft has come to an end after 3 grueling hours of back and forth action. There will be no Mr. Irrelevant this year, as Team Sean scooped up the Dolphins defense as the final pick.  Draft strategies and position selections were consistently inconsistent, but the majority of owners seemed content with their teams whether warranted or not.  Thus we arrive to the predictions/analysis for the upcoming season and their semi-objective justifications.  Round-by-round results are displayed at the end of the post.

Best RB Group - pfunk
Runner Up - Its all about the W

          Pfunk takes home the hardware for his selection of Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Hill, Frank Gore, and Ryan Mathews.  Charles finished 1st in 2013 and 7th in 2014 for RB fantasy scoring, and that was with an otherwise talent-less offense.  His total yardage has declined the past two seasons, but he rushed for 5 yards per carry in 2014 and has unmatched breakaway speed and big play ability.  He has averaged just 250 carries over the past 3 years, a far cry from overused workhorses like DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy.  He may not generate the yardage ideal for an RB1, but he leads the NFL with 33 TD's over the past 2 seasons.
          Only 3 RB's ran for more yards per carry in 2014, one of whom being Jeremy Hill.  After taking the starting roll from Giovani Bernard in week 9 last season, Hill proceeded to rush for 929 yards and 6 TD's in just 9 games.  That equates to 5.4 yards per carry, higher than any other RB in the NFL.  At 6'1, 240 lbs, Hill has beast-like ability to plow over the opposition for 100+ yard games every week, and will absorb all goal line carries.  Throw in one of the most consistent RB's in the NFL over the past decade (Gore), and you get a formidable starting trio capable of 1000 yard seasons.
          Its all about the W would've taken the award each of the past two seasons, as Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray are top 5 RB's by any means of measurement.  Chris Ivory is also one of the most underrated backs in the league.  But as in most sports, history tells us most of what we need to know about projections, and the outlook for DeMarco Murray is a far cry from his 2014 numbers. FootballDocs.com broke down the regression of every RB with 370+ carries in a season, and rarely does a player come anywhere near equal production.  Murray should top 1000 yards and reach double digit TD's, but the Eagles are excellent at spreading the ball around, and Ryan Mathews/Darren Sproles should snipe between 100 and 150 carries from Murray.  Murray remains a top 10 RB, but probably towards the latter end of those rankings.
          Matt Forte has rushed for 929+ yards in each of his 7 NFL seasons, but will turn the dreaded 3-0 in December, and averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in 2014.  He blew away all of RB's with 102 receptions last season and will certainly be heavily leaned on in 2015, but the entire Bears team is entering a rebuilding regression phase.  ProFootballFocus graded the Bears offensive line as one of the worst in 2014, and without any major additions an improvement is unlikely.  However, John Fox has coaxed huge seasons out of lesser-talented RB's such as DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Deshaun Foster, which bodes well for Forte.  He could wind up a top 10 scoring RB, but talent-wise has probably fallen into the early to mid teens.
          ESPN and TSN rank Ivory 26th and 23rd respectively among RB's, but I believe he will be in the top 20 for fantasy points.  Zac Stacey has had a poor preseason, Steven Ridley is coming off surgery, and Bilal Powell is a non-factor in the run game.  Ivory gained 944 yards from scrimmage in 2014 to go along with 7 TD's, and his supporting cast (especially with Geno Smith out) is far superior to the 2014 squad.

Worst RB Group - BluhmGoesTheDynamite
Runner Up - chopkins

          It will be hard to match opponents' RB production when rolling out a starting combination of CJ Spiller, Joique Bell, and Todd Gurley.  Spiller plays second fiddle to Mark Ingram, and his production over the past two seasons has been underwhelming.  He can pile up yards from scrimmage worthy of RB2 consideration, but his 3.6 TD per season average isn't likely to grow without goal line carries and he will have to look for big plays.  He will have high fantasy scoring weeks, but there won't be enough to warrant an RB1 status.  Bell should start for Detroit while he remains healthy, but Ameer Abdullah was taken with the 54th pick in the NFL Draft to supplement his snaps.  Abdullah is the smaller and quicker of the two, and averaged about 25 receptions per season at Nebraska, so the play making ability is there.  But Detroit threw the ball more than all but 4 teams in the NFL last year, and with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, there are no plans to change the scheme.  Bell can crack the top 20 list if he remains healthy and can hold off Abdullah, and certainly is a good bargain in the 8th round where he was taken.
          Todd Gurley is the dark horse of the lot.  His college production was off the charts, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and about 1.5 TD's per game.  All of the major analysts and scouts believe he is a future top 5 NFL running back due to his unique blend of size and play making ability.  But he is recovering from a torn ACL in late 2014, and just this week began participating in 7-on-7 drills.  St. Louis is a young team slowly building their way up to contention, and they have no plans to rush their future Pro Bowler onto the field.  Overachiever Tre Mason will get the bulk of the workload at least to start the season, with Benny Cunningham spelling him barring injury.  Gurley simply won't see the field enough in 2015 to warrant a 5th round draft pick, especially with Ivory/Rashad Jennings/Arian Foster still on the board.
          chopkins has a solid RB1 in Lamar Miller, who quietly rushed for 1100 yards and 8 TD's last season.  As Ryan Tannehill continues to establish himself as a legit NFL QB, Miller will find more running room with defensive focus on the growing number of offensive weapons featured by the Dolphins.  He has no competition for carries and should receive more than the 216 attempts he had last season.  On the other end of the spectrum, chopkins features three RB's surrounded by uncertainty in terms of touches and talent.  As covered in the Joique Bell quip, Ameer Abdullah may or may not be able to overtake Bell during the season, and currently is considered his backup.  The same can be said about Falcon's rookie Tevin Coleman, who is speculated to be part of a timeshare with Devonta Freeman.  Recently, HC Dan Quinn has featured Freeman more and more as his go-to back, but Coleman hasn't been on display mainly due to a hamstring injury.  The Falcons have lacked any semblance of a running game over the past few years, and things are shaping up to be similar this time around.
          ESPN's fantasy staff ranked Doug Martin 34th among RB's, yet there are other sources calling him a candidate for a huge comeback.  In my personal opinion, I think he is awful and unworthy of starting even for one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  He had an excellent rookie season, but hasn't cracked 500 yards since, and is running behind a bottom 3 offensive line.  Pro Football Focus graded him as the 45th best running back out of 57 qualifiers in 2014.  That was a few spots behind backup Bobby Rainey, whose 4.3 yards per carry dwarfed Martin's 3.7.  The only thing working in Martin's favor is Rainey's and second year RB Chris Sims' inability to produce any results on the field, thus giving him the starting job by default.  Martin is an RB3 AT BEST, and a grossly inexplicable reach in the 5th round with RB's like Foster, J-Stew, Jennings, and Ivory still on the board.  Adrian Peterson should outperform Martin's entire season in the first two games.

Best WR Group - BluhmGoesTheDynamite
Runner Up - Team Sean
Starting 2 - Brett's Nasty Bunch

          When you use your first three picks on WR's, you sure as shit better have the best overall group.  Bluhm took Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, and Jordan Matthews in respective order, and landed Roddy White, Martavis Bryant, Kenny Stills, and Eric Decker in the middle rounds.  The initial trio is comprised of three top-15 WR's who will be the focus on their offense, and Bryant is an excellent stash after he serves his suspension.  Stills has underwhelmed in the preseason and has a lot of competition, and White is getting old and less utilized.  Decker is underrated coming off a subpar season, but should improve with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.
          Since I've run out of time, I shall list off my remaining predictions with no explanation, although I will eventually update them with the justification since Jon will undoubtably have nonsense arguments against them all....

Worst WR Group - Pfunk
Runner Up - Manifest Destiny

Deepest Roster - Team Sean

Biggest Draft Reach - Ameer Abdullah (chopkins Round 4)
Biggest Draft Steal - Tom Brady (kevin Round 9)

          Wrote the predictions after Brady's suspension was reversed, so this is an easy call.  The pick still would've probably been the steal of the draft, but a close second would be Team Sean nabbing Giovani Bernard in round 8, or kevin's pick of Sam Bradford in the the 11th.  For further explanation of QB success under Chip Kelly, see this article by Alex Smith.

          I have a strong opinion about which team or two I believe are the worst, but I am going to avoid stomping on anyone's pipe dream of winning the ship this year.  However, the best overall team of the 2015 season is pretty clear cut:

Best Overall Squad - Team Sean

          Aside from a question mark at tight end, Team Sean is deep at every position.  Regardless of most peoples' opinion about Alfred Morris, he has been one of the most consistent RB's of the last 5 years, and on a Redskins team that will emphasize the run game, he should finish no worse then RB20.  CJ Anderson may be a household name finally, but he could easily finish a top 3 RB scorer. Matt Ryan, Emmanuel Sanders, Calvin Johnson, Sammy Watkins, VJax, and Phil Rivers require no explanation in regards to their potential, and mid-season returns by Julius Thomas and Brandon LaFell could bolster the roster.  In a consistantly inconsistent league, the outlook could easily shift within the first few weeks for Team Sean, but for now my money will be on him breaking his playoff drought and seeking his coveted first league title.  But good luck to all (except Jon)!