2013 KPAFFL Player Predictions

Although Week 1 of the NFL season is just about in the books, I will still list the KPAFFL predictions and superlatives of this year's draft. Before making predictions with limited bias after a weeks worth of games, lets look back at 2012 predictions and how they panned out.

• Biggest Reach - Fred Jackson taken by Manifest Destiny (Graham) in Round 2, Pick 17 Overall
• A slam dunk, as Jackson finished 40th overall amongst running backs with 81.4 fantasy points.  Much of Jackson's lack of success can be attributed to C.J. Spiller's role as the feature back, as well as the Bills being forced to throw as they often found themselves behind in games.  However, the worst part about the pick was not that Jackson failed to produce, but that he was taken BEFORE Adrian Peterson, who was taken with the 19th pick.  I could go into the long list of names available when Jackson was picked, but AP and his league-leading 307 fantasy points says all you need to know.
• Biggest Steal - Ben Roethlisberger taken by Brett's Nasty Bunch in Round 12, Pick 134 Overall
• Big Ben finished 15th among QB's with 158.5 fantasy points, and ultimately Brett's squad did not need his production thanks to his first QB selection.  Ironically, his pick of RGIII in the 10th round easily qualifies as one of the biggest steals in the draft, as Griffin finished with the second highest point total of all QB's.  But Roethlisberger had better production then a lot of QB's taken ahead of him, including Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Matt Schaub.
• Most Likely to be dropped - Reuben Randle taken by its all about the w (Jon) in Round 12, Pick 142 Overall
• Randle finished 2012 with 47.8 fantasy points, catching just 19 passes for 298 yards and 3 scores.  Jon took the rookie a year too early, especially in an offense that featured Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks at the same position.  I have little recollection of when he was actually dropped, but I am sure it was early on as predicted, since he finished 88th among WR's in fantasy points.  Thanks to Randle's three garbage-time touchdowns in 2012, he managed to finish within the top 100 WR's, but just barely.
• NFL Team with the least amount of "startable" fantasy players - New York Jets
• Predictions don't come much easier then this one.  The Jets leading fantasy contributors were RB Shonn Greene with 167.4 points, WR Jeremy Kerley with 96.34 points, and QB Mark Sanchez with 60.46 points.  If you add up the fantasy production of all Jets' players from 2012, it just barely surpasses Adrian Peterson's one-season total.  Just barely.  I would also expect virtually the same from Gang Green in 2013.
• Highest Scoring Player - LeSean McCoy taken by Team Sean in Round 1, Pick 4 Overall
• McCoy actually finished 58th in fantasy points, a far cry from league-leader Adrian Peterson.  McCoy was limited to 12 games due to injuries, and the Eagles offense never really put it together in 2012.  He regressed significantly from his magical 2011 campaign, scoring just five touchdowns and totaling 1213 yards from scrimmage.  LeSean lost three fumbles in 2012 after losing three total in his career prior to the dismal season.  He did finish 21st among running backs in fantasy points, but one would typically hope for better production out of the fourth overall pick.

So for my five predictions in 2012, three were money, one was half correct, and one a complete miss.  Not too shabby. Let's take a look at 2013.

• Biggest Reach - Pierre Garcon taken by pfunk (Pat) in Round 4, Pick 44 Overall
• This prediction is a lot more difficult then last year's, as the first few rounds went without much controversy.  But Garcon finished 50th in fantasy points among WR's in 2012, and although he only played in ten games, his 44 receptions were a career-low.  Even when healthy, Garcon managed just seven receptions for 49 yards and zero touchdowns in three consecutive games against the horrendous secondaries of Tampa, Atlanta, and Philadelphia.  Receivers that were available at pick 44 include Reggie Wayne, Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown, Hakeem Nicks, and Jordy Nelson, just to name a few with a much higher upside.  Garcon is often the focal point of the Redskins' passing game, but they have plenty of weapons to target instead of him.  His speed allows for plenty of YAC points, but Garcon has never scored more then six touchdowns in a season, even with Peyton Manning at the helm in Indy.  Garcon was a 7th round pick in 2012, which is exactly where he belonged in 2013, if not later.
• Biggest Steal - Le'Veon Bell taken by Team Tyler in Round 10, Pick 111 Overall
• Call it wishful thinking on my part, but Bell will miss two games at the most due to his preseason injuries.  Once he becomes incorporated into the run-heavy Steeler offense, Bell is a top-20 running back in terms of fantasy production potential.  Over the course of the 2013 season, Bell will out-produce RB's taken ahead of him like Rashard Mendenhall, Vick Ballard, Bryce Brown, Ryan Mathews, and Chris Ivory.  Bell will immediately get the bulk of carries when he returns, especially with Larod Stephens-Howling's season-ending injury and Isaac Redman's unsurprising inability to capitalize as the feature running back.  Without Bell, Pittsburgh rushed for just 32 yards in Week 1 against a Titans defense that ranked 24th against the run in 2012 and made no significant upgrades.  The Steelers had just three 100-yard rushing performances from their individual RB's in 2012, and the loss of Mike Wallace only further emphasizes the importance of their ground game.  Mike Tomlin will straighten out his team's offense, and Le'Veon Bell will play a prominent role.
• Most Likely to be dropped - Zach Sudfeld taken by Manifest Destiny (Andy) in Round 10, Pick 114 Overall
• I would've given this "award" to Brett for selecting kicker Jason Hanson, who is retired, but he already addressed the miscue by the time I got around to writing this.  Instead, I went with the highest pick most likely to be dropped that hasn't been already, and that goes to Sudfeld.  I do not believe Sudfeld is even a marginal tight end in terms of fantasy production, nor do I think he will be on field in 2013 unless it's to block in goal line formation.  The undrafted rookie was simply an over-hyped preseason standout, which very rarely carries into the regular season.  The 32 NFL franchises employ over 240 full-time college scouts, and players that go undrafted are left on waivers for a reason.  If you think a tight end out of Nevada with just 47 receptions and one touchdown in three years at the college level will become an NFL superstar, please give up on fantasy sports now.
• NFL Team with least amount of "startable" fantasy players - New York Jets
• For a second consecutive season, the Jets will have a horrible offense, even without Mark Sanchez at QB.  Only in fantasy leagues with 20+ teams would Bilal Powell or Geno Smith be worth a spot start, and only Santonio Holmes or Kellen Winslow have a glimmer of hope to make an impact.  I'd be surprised if the Jets manage 250 real points this season, even though they managed 281 points in 2012.
• Highest Scoring Player - Adrian Peterson taken by Holmes Crew in Round 1, Pick 1 Overall
• This isn't a prediction as much as it is a certainty, as long as AP stays healthy.  I don't need to go into any detail about how good AP is, except that he is the best player in the NFL and no one else even comes close.  Some may disagree, but when his career comes to an end, we will have had the privilege of watching the best player in NFL history.